No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Global Forces Breaking All the Trends
The world not only feels different. The data tell us it isdifferent. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking All the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital, people, and data.
Our intuitions formed while the world economy was experiencing a uniquely benign period, often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, the cost of capital was falling, labor and resources were abundant, and in generation after generation, young people were growing up more prosperous than their parents. But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world’s labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents.
What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing, informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to grasp quickly the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China—Tianjin—will have a GDP equal to that of Sweden, or that, in the decades ahead, half of the world’s economic growth will come from 440 cities, including Kumasi in Ghana and Santa Catarina in Brazil, that most executives today would be hard pressed to locate on a map.
What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life—facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
About the authors
Based in London, Richard Dobbs is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and leads McKinsey research on global economic trends, including urbanization, resource markets, capital markets, and productivity and growth. From 2004 to 2009, Richard co-led McKinsey's Corporate Finance Practice and served clients around the world in a variety of industries, ranging from high tech and financial services to petroleum, utilities, and the public sector.
Based in San Francisco, James Manyika is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and leads McKinsey research on global economic and technology trends. As a leader in the firm’s High Tech, Media & Telecoms Practice he has served many of the world’s leading high-tech companies on growth, innovation, and strategy. James serves on the US President’s Global Development Council and the US Department of Commerce’s Innovation Advisory Board.
Based in Shanghai, Jonathan Woetzel is a director of the McKinsey Global Institute and leads McKinsey research on China, Asia, and global economic and business trends. As leader of the firm’s Cities Initiative, he has conducted more than 60 projects for governments throughout China to support local economic development and transformation. He also supports the transformation of Chinese companies into global leaders.
Lawrence H. Summers – Former US Treasury Secretary
“No one can know the future. But No Ordinary Disruption takes a very good shot. By reading this book you can prepare for what the future will bring. Everyone with responsibility for a part of the future should carefully consider its analysis.”
Eric Schmidt – Google Executive Chairman
“No Ordinary Disruption is no ordinary management book. Everyone in and around business and technology has heard about disruption for a while now, but the way Dobbs, Manyika and Woetzel dissect the phenomenon and give it meaning is truly new and exciting. They not only provide a prescient diagnosis of what’s to come, but also offer compelling thoughts on how we succeed in a world that’s moving faster and faster every day. The massive changes they describe can be overwhelming, but they do a remarkable job of inspiring us to confront them with intellect, humanity, and a profound optimism about our future.”
Andrew Mackenzie – CEO of BHP Billiton
“A compelling and rigorous illustration of how the pace of change in the last two decades has grown by orders of magnitude. Leaders from all spheres must now face up to these developments, and change their old models and processes for decision-making to handle the massive increase in shorter-term volatility—while still keeping their eyes on the longer term. Important reading for policy-makers, financiers, industrialists and NGOs interested in updating their worldview and making it fit for modern purpose.”
Mohamed A. El-Erian – Chief Economist Adviser at Allianz, Chair of President Obama's Global Development Council and former CEO of PIMCO
“This engaging and fast-moving book takes us on a voyage through four big global forces that are fueling dramatic transformations and confronting us with a rapidly changing and, at times, unsettling landscape. It powerfully illustrates the disruptions ahead using both clear frameworks and everyday examples. Through actionable insights on ‘how to adapt’ to the series of ‘fragile equilibriums’ we face, the authors brilliantly enhance our ability to convert ‘bewildering’ threats into ‘delightful’ opportunities. This is a must-read book if you wish to keep up with transformational changes that, rather than fade, will accelerate even more.”
Reid Hoffman – Co-founder/Chairman of LinkedIn
“The world is getting more connected, and thus more complex. New strategies are necessary for a networked age. No Ordinary Disruption is an excellent primer in how to think strategically about the transformational role of technology and the accelerating global flows of goods, capital, and talent—and how to prepare yourself for a future that will be marked by relentless change and massive opportunity. I highly recommend this book.”